Household surveys provide data for identifying and measuring poverty
status of households and individuals. However, carrying out such surveys is
expensive, especially in poor developing countries. Thus, it is important to
make maximum use of the available survey data in developing countries,
especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where such data are expensive to collect
and analyse. This paper develops a simple method for using poverty indices
derived from survey data for a given year to predict poverty rates for
subsequent periods without having to conduct a new household survey. We
illustrate the workings of the method with data from Kenyan household
surveys for 1994 and 1997.