Considerations of risk and vulnerability are key to understanding the dynamics of
poverty. This study measures vulnerability to consumption shortfalls and analyzes its
sources using a two-period panel of 808 non-pastoralist communities in rural Kenya,
drawn from the 1994 and 1997 Welfare Monitoring Surveys. Our results show that in
1994 one fifth of all communities had a chance of at least 50 percent of falling below the
poverty line in the future. Communities in the Central Province are on average the least
vulnerable, while the most vulnerable communities reside in Nyanza and the Coastal and
Western Province. We find income diversification, adult literacy, market accessibility
and the availability of electricity to be vulnerability reducing, while a community’s
malaria incidence strongly increases the vulnerability of households. When controlling
for other factors, female headed households are not more vulnerable. Policy simulations
indicate that targeted interventions to reduce malaria incidence, to improve access to food
markets – including public workfare programs - and to increase the adult literacy ratio
together with actions to promote off-farm employment opportunities would substantially
reduce vulnerability among non-pastoralist communities in rural Kenya