The main purpose of the study is to identify household characteristics which can 1)
distinguish between the chronic poor and transient poor and 2) be feasibly implemented as
targeting criterion in poverty interventions. Data for this study was drawn from Mozambique‘s
2008/09 Household Budget Survey and consisted of 10,832 observations. This study fills a gap
in the literature by structurally determining the impact of common shocks (drought, floods and
cyclones, agricultural pests, illness, death, and theft) on 1) food expenditures at the household
level and 2) poverty rates at the national level. The results of the study indicate that shocks are
one of the key determinants of household food expenditures. The expected impact of shocks in
aggregate increases the national poverty rate by 9%. However, the impact of specific shocks on
household food expenditures varies across regions and households. Further, the variables which
are strongly correlated with chronic poverty differ from the variables strongly correlated with
transient poverty. These results suggest the need to both more rapidly identify and enroll
households exposed to shocks in short-term social protection programs and continue to improve
methods targeting the chronic poor in long-term programs.