Abstract |
Trends in the birth rate among Indian states during the 1980s are assessed from Census data in 1981 and 1991. The crude birth rate (CBR) for India, which was derived from the reverse survival procedure for India, declined from 34.8/1000 in the late 1970s to 31.6/1000 in the late 1980s. The census data indicated a decline of about 10%, whereas sample registration data analysis showed a decline of only 5% for the same period. The sample registration system had underregistration during the 1970s. The anomaly of increased contraceptive use during the 1970s and 1980s and the small decline in the birth rate may be explained by this underregistration during the 1970s. The crude birth rate and the total fertility rate were found to be in close correspondence. The TFR change indicated fertility changes at all ages, while the changes in the CBR indicated fertility changes at younger age intervals. The comparable decline in fertility was from 4.7 children per woman to 4.0 children per woman, a decline of 15%. Large declines in the birth rate were apparent from census data in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Other noteworthy declines occurred in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. The western Indian state with the greatest fertility decline was Gujarat. The northern states showed modest declines of about 7%, while the southern states showed rapid declines of about 17% during the 1980s. Results of analysis with the reverse survival procedure showed greater fertility decline in urban areas. |