The high level of hunger incidence in the country is perhaps one of the most pressing issues that need to be addressed by our policymakers. Official government statistics and data from self-rated hunger surveys show an increasing trend in hunger incidence among Filipino households. Data from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) show that the percentage of Filipinos experiencing hunger almost remained the same, decreasing only slightly from 11.1 percent in 2003 to 10.8 percent in 2009. The Social Weather Stations (SWS) quarterly surveys on hunger incidence also show an increasing
trend in the percentage of families that experienced hunger, reaching an alarming level of 24 percent in December 2009, representing about 4.4 million households. One probable cause of the increasing trend in hunger is the rising food prices akin to what the country experienced in 2008. This paper aims to determine the impact of food inflation and underemployment on hunger incidence in the Philippines, using the hunger incidence data from the SWS. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to determine the effect of a shock or increase to food inflation and underemployment on total involuntary hunger. Results show that an increase in food prices at the current quarter will increase hunger incidence for five quarters. Shocks to underemployment will also increase hunger incidence but the effects last for only two quarters. The results of this study provide relevant information that will be useful in crafting policies related to the Hunger Mitigation Program of the government.