Abstract |
Several approaches were made by actuaries and demographers to correct and smooth the Indian age distribution with special emphasis on population in age group 0-4 at different points of time. The present analysis conceives the life table stationary population (using West Model) as 'reference standard'. Two parameters were estimated from a regression equation using proportion of populations in age groups 5-14 and 60+ as independent variables and that in 0-4 as dependent variable. The corrected census proportions in age group 0-4 obtained from the regression model under certain assumptions in respect of the 14 major states and India seem to be consistent and have slightly lower values than those of 1971 adjusted data. Moreover, unadjusted and adjusted proportions in 5-14 and 60+ do not show any significant difference between the predicted values. Using corrected population aged 0-4 years, the average annual birth and death rates during the 5 year period preceding 1981 census have been estimated in respect of those 14 states and India as well. The estimated birth rates so obtained were further adjusted using an appropriate factor obtained from the West Model and Indian life table survival ratios. The final estimates seem to be consistent, except a few, and have slightly higher values than those of SRS estimates. As the present analysis is based on 5% sample and confined to only 14 states, it is proposed to study the same in respect of all the states and UTS in India in greater detail using full count data on age distribution and actual life tables as and when available. Demografi ed attuari hanno effettuato vari tentativi per correggere e adattare la distribuzione della popolazione indiana per classi di età, specialmente per quanto riguarda la classe 0-4 anni con riferimento a diverse epoche. In questo lavoro viene assunta come standard, la popolazione stazionaria associata alla tavola di mortalità relativa al modello Ovest. Due parametri vengono stimati con l'equazione di regressione, utilizzando come variabili indipendenti la quota di popolazione appartenente rispettivamente alle classi di età 5-14 e 60+, e come variabile dipendente la quota di popolazione in età 0-4 anni. La quota corretta di popolazione censita in età 0-4 anni, ottenuta applicando sotto determinate ipotesi il modello di regressione, con riferimento ai 14 Stati indiani più importanti e all'India nel complesso, sembra essere "consistente" e mostra valori leggermente più bassi rispetto a quelli concernenti i dati aggiustati relativi al 1971. Inoltre le proporzioni, corrette e non corrette, della popolazione in età 5-14 e 60+ non mostrano differenze significative. Les démographes et les actuaires ont essayé plusieurs approches pour corriger et adapter la structure de la population de l'Inde par groupe d'âge particulièrement en ce qui concerne le groupe 0-4 ans à différentes dates. |