Malaria has been a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Thailand for many decades. The
objective of this study was to model and forecast malaria mortality rate in Thailand using death certificate
reports. A retrospective analysis of the malaria mortality rate is reported. The data were obtained from the
national vital registration database for the 10 year period from 2000 to 2009, provided by the Ministry of
Interior and coded as cause-of-death using ICD-10 by the Ministry of Public Health. Multivariate linear
regression was used for modeling and forecasting age-specific malaria mortality rates in Thailand.
Malaria mortality increased with increasing age for each gender and was also higher in the Central and
Northern provinces. The trends of malaria mortality are stable in most age groups with decreases in others
and decreases during the ten-year period (2000 to 2009). Malaria mortality was higher in males and
increase with increasing age. There is a need for malaria control measures to remain on a sustained and
long-term basis for the high malaria burden rate of Thailand.