Malaria has been a leading cause of mortality in Thailand for many
decades. The objective was to model of malaria mortality rate in Thailand
by gender, age, year and region. A retrospective analysis of the
malaria death was conducted by using the national vital registration
database for the 10-year period from 2000 to 2009, provided by the Ministry
of Interior and coded as cause-of-death using ICD-10. The linear,
Poisson regression and negative binomial models were used for modeling
and forecasting age-specific malaria mortality rates in Thailand. We use
these models to forecast the malaria mortality which is likely to occur
in the near future in order to prevent the malaria mortality through the
use of suitable measures. Among the models fitted, the best were chosen
based on the analysis of deviance and the negative binomial generalized
linear model was clearly appropriate fit. The model contains additive
effects associated with the gender, age group, year and regions. There is
need of malaria control measures to remain on a sustained and long-term
basis for the high malaria burden rate of Thailand.