Developing business-as-usual scenarios for the urban growth of 4 Asian megacities

Type Conference Paper - International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe
Title Developing business-as-usual scenarios for the urban growth of 4 Asian megacities
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2013
URL http://www.corfu7.eu/media/universityofexeter/research/microsites/corfu/1publicdocs/conferencepapers​/A1_295_Veerbeek.pdf
Abstract
In the Collaborative Research on Flood Resilience in Urban areas (CORFU) the development of long term flood resilient strategies is strongly connected to the consequences of rapid urban development. Especially in the Asian cities of Beijing, Dhaka, Mumbai and Seoul, urban development is one of the major drivers of flood risk and will continue in the coming decades. In order to assess the impact of urban growth on flood risk, a set of business-as-usual scenarios have been developed that have been applied to a spatially explicit urban growth model to develop long term projections. The outcomes show very different urban growth rates, patterns and potential consequences for impervious surface ratios within and between the cities. These scenarios might be used as baseline data for hydraulic and flood impact models to assess the consequences of an extrapolation of current growth trends in the future. This seems especially prudent for Beijing and Dhaka, where rapid densification seems the dominant trend for the coming decades.

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