Type | Working Paper |
Title | Competitive Real Exchange Rates Are Good for the Poor: Evidence from Egyptian Household Surveys |
Author(s) | |
Publication (Day/Month/Year) | 2015 |
URL | http://www.erf.org.eg/CMS/uploads/pdf/ERF21AC_57-IbrahimElBadawiEmanRefaat.pdf |
Abstract | This paper develops a theoretical model that allows assessing the poverty impact of the real exchange rate (RER), as an economy-wide relative price, in a fully optimizing model at the household and the firm levels. The model motivates empirical estimation of the response of average household wage and non-wage incomes to RER depreciation/undervaluation. In particular, it is possible to assess the extent to which an RER undervaluation (or RER depreciation) is pro-poor, using a precise metric that compares the rate of change of the income of the poor relative to that of the non-poor in response to RER devaluation/depreciation. We estimate the model using national-level panel data from the Egyptian Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics and the ERF’s data bank. We find robust evidence suggesting that strategic real currency depreciation, even undervaluation, at the macroeconomic level promotes pro-poor income growth at the household level. |
» | Egypt, Arab Rep. - Household Income, Expenditure and Consumption Survey 2012-2013 |