Using methods of multi-state population projection, the population of China up to 2045
was studied by simultaneous interacting states of educational categories and urban/rural
residence in three alternative future paths. The results anticipate that in 2045, more than
60% of the population will have secondary education, while this was the case for only
8% of the population in1964. This study not only produces educational projections, it
also provides regular population projections by age, sex, and urban/rural place of
residence. In the coming decades, China will reach its peak in total population, working
population, and aging population in different times under low, medium and high
scenarios. According to results of this study, an important question will face Chinese
policy makers in the context of sustainable socioeconomic and environmental
development: How should the anticipated socioeconomic developments in the coming
decades be figured into the demographic trade-off between rapid fertility decline in the
near term and rapid population aging in the long term?