With 1.3 million people infected and 150,000 deaths in 2003, the HIV/AIDS epidemic continues
to greatly impact on the Kenyan society. Sentinel surveillance data since 1990 display
a regionally-varying epidemic which suggests disparity in the transmission of HIV/AIDS and in
the factors influencing its spatial diffusion and intensity across the country. At the national
level, the epidemic has been higher among the urban residents. However, provincially disaggregated
prevalence does not show correlation with the percentage population that is urban.
In spite of this, circular migration as migrants maintain link with their rural homes could be
influencing constant diffusion between the rural and urban areas. High prevalence levels in
Nyanza province, which has high poverty incidence, suggest the role of poverty in the spread
of the epidemic. However, low prevalence in North Eastern province, which has equally-high
poverty incidence, indicates that there is more than poverty in the spatial diffusion dynamics
of the epidemic. Positively-strong correlation with the Nilotic ethnic group and negative correlation
with the Central Bantu, the Western Hamitic, and the Eastern Hamitic suggest the influence
of cultural practices in the spatial patterns of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. An expansive
surveillance system at lower administrative level would provide more information to explore
further the factors influencing the spatial patterns for better mitigation intervention of the
epidemic in Kenya.