Writing history backwards or sideways: towards a consensus on African population, 1850-2010

Type Journal Article - The Economic History Review
Title Writing history backwards or sideways: towards a consensus on African population, 1850-2010
Author(s)
Volume 67
Issue 4
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2014
Page numbers 907-931
URL https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ewout_Frankema/publication/262269544_Writing_history_backwards_​or_sideways_towards_a_consensus_on_African_population_18502010/links/5475bd630cf245eb43710a2a.pdf
Abstract
This article aims to make an empirical and theoretical contribution towards the
creation of a continent-wide dataset on African population extending into the pre-
1950 era. We investigate the reliability and the validity of the current population
databases with the aim of working towards a consensus on the long-term series of
African total population with a reliable 1950 benchmark. The cases of Kenya,
Nigeria, and Ghana are explored to show the uneven coverage of census taking in
colonial and post-colonial Africa and to demonstrate the need for an upward adjustment
of the conventional 1950 benchmark. In addition, we discuss the advantages
and disadvantages of Manning’s approach of projecting population growth estimates
backwards in time by adopting the available Indian census data as African ‘default
growth rates’, and we propose an alternative approach by incorporating the demographic
experiences of tropical land-abundant countries in South-East Asia.

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