Population projections are a complex exercise and require a careful effort in the critical data quality; it depends on a number of socio-demographic variables, whose reliability and trend need to be focused. Data analysis becomes increasingly complex, as the size of the population projected decreases. The case of Cape Verde is no exception to this rule, since it is a micro-island state with less than half a million inhabitants, where projection’s exercise requires some finesse, especially given the rapid and consistent changes in collective behaviors, which leads to disagreements between existing and projected changes effective volume and age structure. Besides being a small state, Cape Verde is divided into 10 islands and 22 municipalities, which makes the current exercise even more complex, since it takes into account the regional diversity, which may put at risk the options made in general terms. We can ask about the validity of the results of calculation of some indicators, demographic and social groups such as the Human Development Index as a
composite indicator and easily fall into the over-or under-projection.
This main purpose of this text is to discuss the methodology of population projections, based on the results obtained by the Principal Author3 in his dissertation, presented and approved in 2003 by ISEGI - UNL, as a partial requirement for obtaining a Masters degree. This research projects the population evolution of Cape Verde on the horizon 2025, based on the Census of 2000 and all demographic behaviors and its trend in the 1990s by some hypothetical “scenarios”. For this exercise we rely on the method of components (Cohort Survival), which incorporates information on trends in mortality, fertility and migration, allowing to follow the cohorts of the effectives, by age (5 x 5) and sex over time, according to known trends on fertility, mortality and migration. In subsidiary terms we used mathematical methods and ratio. The first one considers the average annual growth rate recorded in the 90’s to project population volume by 2025; the second estimates the same population based on the weight it had both in 1990 and 2000, compared to the population
of ECOWAS.
We intend to discuss possible alternative methods of performing population projections in micro the political-great internal diversity, taking Cape Verde as a case study. We will include a critical analysis of the results obtained and make some aggregation tests of the 10 existing islands, according to their convergence or divergence behaviour patterns (both natural and migratory).