BACKGROUND
In 2013 a draft population bill was introduced in the Iranian Parliament. Based on the
presumption that fertility in Iran had fallen to a very low level, the bill proposed a wide
range of pronatalist policies with the aim of increasing fertility to 2.5 births per woman.
The draft law called for restrictions on the employment of women and young single
people and inducements for women to marry in their late teens. New estimates of
fertility, such as those provided in this paper, cast doubt upon the view that fertility had
fallen to a very low level. In May 2014 a statement issued by the Supreme Leader
provided guidelines for a more moderate approach to sustaining fertility at around the
replacement level.
OBJECTIVE
To measure the trend in fertility in Iran, especially from 2000 onwards.
METHODS
Using the 2010 IDHS, the synthetic cohort parity progression ratio method is used to
measure the fertility trend in Iran. Synthetic parity progressions are compared with real
cohort parity progressions to examine the presence of tempo effects. Comparison is
made with age-based measures from surveys, censuses, and the birth registration
system. RESULTS
This paper demonstrates that fertility in Iran was constant for the decade 2000–2009, at
a level of around 1.8–2.0 births per woman.
CONCLUSIONS
Our findings provide evidence supporting a more moderate approach to sustaining
fertility in Iran at around the replacement level.
COMMENTS
The paper demonstrates the advantages of parity-based measurement over age-based
measurement when tempo effects may be involved.