This study quantifies a year’s worth of mathematics learning in South Africa (0.3 standard
deviations) and uses this measure to develop empirically-calibrated learning trajectories. Two main
findings are, (1) only the top 16% of South African Grade 3 children are performing at an
appropriate Grade 3 level. (2) The learning gap between the poorest 60% of students and the
wealthiest 20% of students is approximately three Grade-levels in Grade 3, growing to four Gradelevels
by Grade 9. The paper concludes by arguing that the later in life we attempt to repair early
learning deficits in mathematics, the costlier the remediation becomes.