It is possible that in the near future, energy engineering will be called upon to help society
adapt to permanently constrained fuel supplies, constrained green house gas emissions, and
electricity supply systems running with minimal capacity margins. The goal of this research
is to develop an analytical method for adaptive energy systems engineering within the context
of resource constraints. The method involves assessing available energy resources,
environmental and social issues, and economic activities. A spectrum of development
options is identified for a given region and a Reference Energy Demand is calculated for each
representative level. A spectrum of conceptual Reference Energy System Models is generated
for each development level with a range of renewable energy penetration. The outcome is a
matrix of energy system investment and resource utilization for the range of energy service
level defined by the development level. These models are then used for comparative risk
assessment. The result is an easily understood visual based investment and risk assessment
for both development and adaptation to constrained resource availability. The above
approach is being applied to a relatively simple case study on Rotuma, an isolated Pacific
Island society. The case study results will show a clear development space for Rotuma where
needs and services are in balance with investment, local resource availability and
environmental constraints.