This paper uses a multiregional model combining nine regional submodels interacting
through trade and factor mobility to derive equity and efficiency effects of intergovernmental
revenue transfers implied by the 2011 census results in South Africa. Based on a simulation
designed to mimic broadly the impact of these population shifts for government fiscal
transfers, the analysis demonstrates that resulting shifts in intergovernmental fiscal transfers
has significant inter- and intraregional equity effects, although its nationwide impact is less
important. When transfer revenues fall and, consequently, regional and local government
revenues drop, poor households are the most affected, as they depend more on public services
that are essentially financed by governments. The value added of the work lies in the explicit
regional modelling accomplished that can be replicated for other countries with decentralised
fiscal systems. There is no parallel work in South Africa and indeed in the rest of Africa that
we are aware of that has applied such a rich technique to analysis of intergovernmental
transfers.