In order to achieve the core objectives of its truth-seeking mandate, the Commission developed a
number of programs, including both qualitative empirical research and quantitative statistical
analysis. This chapter presents the findings that resulted from the Commission's statistical work
and discusses the methodological approaches used to reach these findings.
The introductory section, Section 0, provides a brief summary of key findings, an overview of
the historical context in which the Commission undertook its demographic and statistical work,
and an outline of the Commission’s information management decisions.
Section 1 presents the commission's demographic and statistical estimates of the total extent,
pattern and trend of, as well as the levels of responsibility for, fatal violations in Timor-Leste
between 1974 and 1999. These estimates are derived from statistical and demographic analyses
of data collected by the Commission and from external data from official statistical bureaus and
human rights NGOs. Although displacement is not necessarily a fatal violation, it is nonetheless
closely linked to both conflict-related and famine-related fatalities. Therefore, the analysis of
large-scale displacements is included in Section 1.
Section 2 presents an analysis of general patterns of non-fatal violations. The CAVR was unable
to find sources containing extensive information about non-fatal violations other than its own
testimonies. Consequently we were unable to make rigorous quantitative estimates of the total
magnitude of non-fatal violations during 1974-1999. The statistical analysis described in this
section therefore focuses on a macro-level view of patterns and trends of non-fatal violations as
revealed in the statements given to the Commission.
Section 3 presents a statistical case-study of reported violations experienced by the villagers of
Mauxiga in the context of the August 1982 uprising by the resistance movement. This case study
is used to highlight the patterns and trends of arbitrary detention, forced displacement and
conflict-related deaths which were experienced in the Eastern Region during the consolidation
and normalization phase of the Indonesian military's occupation of Timor-Leste.1
Section 4 provides a brief summary and conclusion to the chapter.
Section 5 describes the data collection and statistical techniques we used to derive the
Commission's statistical findings. It presents methodological background and detailed discussion
about the various datasets, data processing methods used, record linkage techniques developed
and the analysis and estimation techniques employed.