Perceptions of recent rainfall changes in Niger: a comparison between climate-sensitive and non-climate sensitive households

Type Working Paper
Title Perceptions of recent rainfall changes in Niger: a comparison between climate-sensitive and non-climate sensitive households
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2015
URL https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Antoine_Leblois/publication/284715603_Perceptions_of_recent_rai​nfall_changes_in_Niger_a_comparison_between_climate-sensitive_and_non-climate_sensitive_households/l​inks/5656c55d08ae1ef9297b717e.pdf
Abstract
Understanding public perceptions of changes in local weather patterns is fundamental to both climate
science and policy, especially in sub-Saharan Africa where adaptation will be crucial to reduce the
projected impacts of climate change. In this study, a nationally-representative sample of households
in Niger is used to document how perceptions of 2007-2011 rainfall changes vary across households
depending on their socio-economic characteristics and their location within the latitudinal rainfall
gradient of the country. We further characterize the complex relationship between perceived rainfall
trends and rainfall data derived from satellite data. We found that over the last five years, most
people perceive less rainfall (76%), worse distribution of rainfall in the year (78%), more frequent
droughts (83%) and a rainy season delayed (71%) and also finishing earlier (80%). These
perceptions are consistent with an observed worsening of rainfall conditions as seen from satellite
data. Our results demonstrate that smallholders, commercial farmers, pastoralists and sedentary agropastoralists
living in rural dry areas have a higher level of awareness of local changes than other
respondents. Indeed, perceptions of these climate-sensitive households are more consensual and
more closely related to observed local changes. We found that climate-sensitive households are able
to detect very accurately changes in the beginning of the rainy season and to a lesser extent changes
in rainfall distribution and drought frequency.

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