Type | Journal Article - Journal of the Nigerian Mathematical Society |
Title | Mathematical recipe for HIV elimination in Nigeria |
Author(s) | |
Volume | 29 |
Publication (Day/Month/Year) | 2010 |
Page numbers | 51-112 |
URL | https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Abba_Gumel/publication/221933504_S.M._Garba_and_A.B._Gumel_Mathematical_recipe_for_HIV_elimination_in_Nigeria/links/09e41511daeecca034000000.pdf |
Abstract | A deterministic model for assessing the impact of counselling, condom use and treatment strategies on the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS in Nigeria is designed and rigorously analysed. The model, which consists of mutuallyexclusive compartments representing the number of counselled, non-counselled and treated infected individuals, has a globallyasymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number (Rc) is less than unity. Using a Krasnoselskii sub-linearity trick and non-linear Lyapunov function of Goh-Volterra type, in conjunction with the LaSalle Invariance Principle, it is shown that the endemic equilibrium is locally-and then globally-asymptotically stable for special cases. Numerical simulations, using demographic and epidemiological data relevant to Nigeria, show that the use of condoms, as a singular anti-HIV intervention strategy, can lead to effective control of HIV in Nigeria if the condom efficacy and compliance rate in its usage are high enough (at least 80% and 65%, respectively). Furthermore, the singular use of public health counselling of infected individuals or anti-retroviral drugs can lead to the effective control or elimination of HIV in Nigeria if their effectiveness levels are moderately high enough (these strategies could avert between 10 to 12 million new HIV cases in Nigeria over a period of 6 years). Finally, the prospect of HIV elimination in Nigeria is greatly enhanced if the aforementioned strategies are implemented together (universally). A universal strategy, with high level of effectiveness, can lead to HIV elimination in Nigeria within 23 years. |
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