Uganda has long been known as a big success story in terms of poverty reduction, but there are
currently concerns that the momentum of poverty reduction in Uganda may have been lost in
recent years. This paper investigates this issue using a four wave panel covering more than 2000
households in the period between 2005/6 to 2011/12. The panel evidence indeed suggests that
poverty has increased over this period in Uganda’s Eastern and Western regions, and this has not
been compensated by sufficient progress elsewhere. But the data set is also characterised by
systematic patterns of attrition and of formation of new households; in both cases the households
affected are better off. In other words any progress over this period may be a consequence chiefly
of migration. The paper also identifies factors associated with positive or negative change over
this period: shocks, large numbers of children, lack of key community infrastructure and a
continuing reliance on agriculture are important factors holding people back.