The end of seasonality? New insights from sub-Saharan Africa

Type Working Paper - World Bank Policy Research Working Paper
Title The end of seasonality? New insights from sub-Saharan Africa
Author(s)
Issue 6907
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2014
URL http://www.gdn.int/admin/uploads/editor/files/Parallel Session 21- Day III-Luc Christiaensen_The End​of Seasonality.pdf
Abstract
This paper revisits the extent of seasonality in African livelihoods, which has disappeared from
Africa’s development debate. Through econometric analysis of monthly food price series across 100
locations in 3 countries during 2000-2012, it is shown that seasonal movements in maize wholesale
prices explain 20 (Tanzania, Uganda) to 40 (Malawi) percent of their monthly volatility. Monthly
maize peak prices are on average 30 (Tanzania, Uganda) to 50 (Malawi) percent higher than their
monthly troughs and two to three times higher than the seasonal gaps observed for white maize at
the South African Futures Exchange. Furthermore, household food consumption is found to inversely
track food prices in each country, decreasing when staple prices increase; increasing when they
decline. Clearly, (excess) seasonality in African food markets and consumption persists, necessitating
policy attention.  

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