This paper presents a model for simulating country-wide changes in the land use pattern of
China. It is based upon an empirical analysis of the spatial distribution of land use types in
China which takes into account socioeconomic as well as geophysical variables. The empirical
analysis indicates that a reasonably complete description of the land use distribution can be
made by including demographic, soil-related, geomorphological and climatic variables. A
multi-scale approach is followed to capture top-down as well as bottom-up factors affecting
land use allocation. Competition between different land use types determines which changes
will actually take place. The most important land use conversions in China, caused by urbanization,
desertification and afforestation, are simulated for a scenario based upon a trend analysis
of present land use dynamics. The spatially explicit results allow an analysis of the consequences
of a decrease in cultivated area and related production capacity. A preliminary analysis
shows that the average production capacity of the lost arable lands is somewhat less than the
average production capacity of all agricultural lands together. ?