This paper estimates the high school graduation rate for five states in the Ninth Federal Reserve
District (Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin) by adjusting the
upward bias in the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES) high school status
completion rate. We follow the methodology used by Heckman and LaFontaine (2007) by
excluding GED holders and immigrants never enrolled in U.S. secondary schools, including the
institutionalized population, and adjusting for response bias and low sample coverage. As
Heckman and LaFontaine find for the United States, the adjusted Ninth District graduation rate is
substantially lower than the completion rate (83.4 percent vs. 90.1 percent in 2000). In addition,
the adjusted Ninth District graduation rate has not increased over the past 40 years and the
adjusted majority/minority graduation rate differentials remain. Finally, after adjusting for
biases, the gap between the Ninth District and U.S. graduation rates is wider; however, over time
the U.S. graduation rate has been catching up with the Ninth District.