The 2000 census of China counted approximately 12.8 million fewer
females in the cohorts born between 1980 and 2000 than would be
expected if China had experienced normal sex ratios at birth and the
gender-neutral mortality rates derived from mainly European-based
model life tables. However, this estimate of the “nominally missing”
contains a substantial component of females who are alive but hidden in
the population. A comparison of cohorts enumerated as small children in
the 1990 census with the same cohorts enumerated 10 years later in the
2000 census reveals that fewer than a third of the girls missing in the first
enumeration subsequently appear in the second. This comparison informs our rough estimate that the number of truly missing girls in the
cohorts born 1980 to 2000 is approximately 8.5 million. Although the
direct effect of missing girls on population size is small, the long-term
influence is considerable because the reproductive potential of the
missing girls is also lost. We use cohort component projections to
simulate the long-term effects under different assumed scenarios. Girls
already missing can be expected to reduce China’s future population by
3.2% in 100 years. If missing rates should continue at 2000 levels for a
century, population size would be reduced by 13.6%.