China is the most populous country in the world. In less than 50 years since 1950,
the Chinese population has experienced the typical process of the demographic
transition with fertility falling quickly from high to low levels. In between, sizeable
bulges and troughs in age structure were left as results of China’s turbulent course of
social and economic development in recent decades. The government sponsored birth
control programs are believed to have played a special role in pressing down fertility
since the mid-1970s. Projections of age structural transition show that the best
“window of opportunity” for China as a whole will arrive in around 2010, when the
share of working age population reaches the highest level of 70.7% and total
dependency ratio drops to the lowest level of 41.5%. However, marked differences
exist between provinces and between urban and rural areas. Before the dependency
ratio starts to pick up again around 2015, China still have over 10 years’ time to make
full use of the “demographic bonus”. It is a crucial period for China to reach its target of
2020 to quadruple its per capita GDP based on 2000 and to fulfill its commitment to the
Millennium Development Goals. Major policy implications are discussed to labor
market and social security programs.