Can natural disasters undermine democratic legitimacy? This article maps a causal pathway from natural disaster
damage to shifts in opinion and behavioral tendencies in less established democracies. It theorizes citizens who suffer
damage in such contexts will tend toward lower evaluations of democratic institutions, lower support for democratic
values and practices, and stronger dispositions toward action. These expectations are tested with national survey data
collected following Chile’s 2010 earthquake and tsunami by analyzing intracountry differences in damage with matching
techniques and regression analyses. Results are consistent with expectations, with important implications for Chile
and other less established democracies.