When does public opinion support domestic counterinsurgency? Do the costs of
conflict breed war weariness, increasing support for compromise? Or does violence
harden support for war? I examine country-wide opinion polling from Thailand concerning
government policy toward insurgency in the south. The perceived severity of
insurgency predicts greater support for southern autonomy. That relationship is driven
by respondents outside of the conflict theater, however. The number of military fatalities
associated with a respondent’s regional army is also positively correlated with
support for southern autonomy. As placebo tests, I demonstrate that neither perceived
conflict severity nor military fatalities predict greater support for reconciliation in the
simultaneous conflict at the capital. Together, the results suggest Thai public opinion
on domestic counterinsurgency is subject to a casualty fatigue process similar to overseas
wars but rarely applied to civil conflict.