Random shocks may push households that are not identified as being
indigent into poverty. While regional poverty profiles have been elaborated for Brazil,
vulnerability to poverty, i.e. the risk of falling into poverty in the future, has gained
little attention. Using the Brazilian National Household Sample Survey (PNAD), we
apply a multilevel framework to calculate vulnerability measures and map the
prevalence of vulnerability. We identify states and regions in which fluctuations in
income produce disproportionately high rates of vulnerability. Hence, this is the first
contribution that can draw a comprehensive regional picture of vulnerability, including
rural areas. When discussing the determinants of vulnerability, recent literature
typically focuses on current and often endogenous conditions, such as institutions or
recent policies. However, we take up the idea of long term path dependence and link
up our findings to clearly exogenous regional characteristics like geographic, climatic
and historic aspects that potentially drive vulnerability.