In this paper we describe an innovative aspect of the population module in the
context of an ongoing comprehensive modelling effort to assess future populationenvironment
interactions through specific case studies. A particular focus of our
study is the vulnerability of coastal populations to environmental factors and
their future adaptive capacity. Based on the four-dimensional cross-classification
of populations by age, sex, level of education, and labour force participation,
our approach builds on a recent body of research that has critically assessed the
role of demographic differentials as determinants of differential vulnerability and
adaptive capacity. We use Phang Nga, a province in the south of Thailand that was
severely affected by the tsunami in 2004, to describe current levels of educational
attainment and investigate past trends, which in turn serve as input for detailed
education projections. These education projections, in combination with projections
of economic activity and household survey results about disaster preparedness,
feed into further analysis of future adaptive capacity. Given our specifications and
assumptions, we find that the educational composition of the province’s labour force
will shift towards higher levels, and that the population of Phang Nga will be better
prepared for future disasters.