This paper examines the recent phenomenon of cereal yield growth in
Ethiopia and tries to see yield responses to modern inputs such as chemical
fertilizer and improved seeds on major cereal crops. It bases its analysis on
two rounds of the Ethiopian Rural Household Surveys (ERHS). Results show
that cereal yield grew by 21 percent during the period 1999 and 2009, much
lower than the national figure, which is 60 percent, for the same period. This
growth was contributed by wheat, maize and barley, which grew by 62, 19
and 11 percent respectively. The study further indicates that the source of
this yield growth can be partly explained by modestly increasing use of
modern inputs. It shows more intensification of modern agricultural inputs
than that which the CSA data shows during the period. Overall, regression
results in the two periods show that yield response to fertilizer and improved
seeds was found to be statistically significant. However, using panel data
analysis, the study also found an indication of some yield growth, unrelated
to inputs such as seeds and fertilizer. This cannot be explained by weather
changes and needs further research to capture its source in a time series
setting