Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions

Type Journal Article - Demographic Research
Title Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions
Author(s)
Volume 14
Issue 22
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2006
Page numbers 541-574
URL http://demoscope.ru/weekly/knigi/tours_2005/papers/iussp2005s52097.pdf
Abstract
This paper describes an approach to incorporating the impact of HIV/AIDS and the effects of HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programmes into a cohort component projection model of the South African population. The modelled HIV-positive population is divided into clinical and treatment stages, and it is demonstrated that the age profile and morbidity profile of the HIV-positive population is changing significantly over time. HIV/AIDS is projected to have a substantial demographic impact in South Africa. Prevention programmes - social marketing, voluntary counselling and testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission and improved treatment for sexually transmitted diseases - are unlikely to reduce AIDS mortality significantly in the short term. However, more immediate reductions in mortality can be achieved when antiretroviral treatment is introduced.

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