Floods and landslides are common natural calamities that Rwanda has been facing
almost every year at different scales. Consequently, damages to property and misery
due to destruction of infrastructure and property are enormous leaving adverse socioeconomic
effects on the victims. In particular, the main wet season of 2012 brought
much higher rainfall in the country than expected, with most meteorological stations
recording more than double rainfall amounts in the first 10 days of May 2012 compared
with the long-term average for the same period. This climatic change and its effects are
main cause of this study.
The literature review indicates scarce or limited studies that quantified the effects of
climate change in Rwanda. This particular study adds value in this context and
postulates the need by REMA to quantify in monetary terms the losses incurred during
the 2012 wet season. Therefore, the overall objective of this study was to assess the
economic impact of the 2012 wet season flooding in Rwanda. Specifically, the research
evaluated the economic costs in monetary terms of the 2012 floods on agricultural
production, household livelihoods, and development infrastructure in the study area.
Results from this assessment were expected to provide some evidences on economic
losses resulting from climate change effects so that this can inform future adaptation
and mitigation strategies, as articulated in the National Strategy for Climate Change
and Low Carbon Development for Green Growth and Climate Resilience (REMA 2011).
Data used for this assessment was collected in four stage process: the mapping with the
Geographic Information System (GIS), field exploration, Focus Group Discussion
(FGD), and individual household/farm surveys. The first three stages allowed
researchers to fully understand the context of the study prospects while the last stage of
individual households’ interviews was helpful in quantifying some of the losses
expressed during the mapping, exploratory visit and through the focus group
discussions. For analytical purposes, a number of approaches were followed including
the input-output approach and with or without approach.
The study area was stratified in three locations namely the upstream zone, the middle
and downstream zone. In line of these three locations, 43% of losses are from the middle
zone compared to 24% in the upstream and 33% in the downstream zones; respectively.
Total land affected by the rain in the 2012 wet season was 1,019,298 m2 or 101.93
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hectares in the sampled households of 421 households that responded. There is some
variation per location where the middle stream was highly affected (437,590m2
)
followed by the downstream (340,639 m2
) and then upstream (241,073 m2
). One of the
explanations is that in sampled households, they cultivate more in the middle zone than
in the upstream and downstream. The upstream is made mostly with hill plots
inappropriate for agriculture while the downstream is made mostly with the
marshlands.
The study assessed mostly the costs related to agricultural losses and damages linked to
destroyed infrastructures based on both primary and secondary data collected. Results
indicate that the 2012 wet season caused negative effects in terms of agricultural losses
and replacement costs of damaged infrastructures. With respect to agriculture, there is a
total estimate of 31, 926,941 Rwf considered as losses of which 50% are for seed losses,
32 % for human labor losses, and 18% for fertilizers, in the sampled area. With respect
to infrastructure, an estimate of 4,285,091,200 Rwf represents the costs of destroyed or
damaged infrastructures mainly roads and buildings based on the information collected
from the survey. Taking into account the secondary information from MIDIMAR 2012
that establishes the rehabilitation cost for Musanze, Mukamira and Ngororero at
2,443,000,000 Rwf, the estimated loss in infrastructure both the replacement and
economic cost is 6,915,591,200 Rwf. On the other hand, the total MININFRA/RTDA,
KCC and districts road programmes budget of 2013 - 2014 is equivalent to Rwf
24,300,000,000 which means that the estimated loss in infrastructure comes down to
28% of the whole budget.
Overall, the estimated total economic loss of 2012 wet season flooding in Rwanda [
agricultural loss + Livestock loss + infrastructure (replacement and economic cost) loss]
is 58,322,907,201 Rwf which represented about 1.4% of the overall GDP of 2011/2012.
This provides an indication of the economic costs once measures to control floods and
landslides are not in place. This is a lot of money the country lost.
Based on causes of floods as indicated by the sampled population, the study proposed
some flood-proof adaptation strategies, these include Integrated Water Resource
Management (IWRM); setting up an information system for early warning of
hydrological and agro- meteorological systems and rapid intervention mechanisms;
promotion of intensive agro-pastoral activities; introduction of species resistant to
extreme conditions; and development of alternative sources of energy to firewood.
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Furthermore, policies and strategies to address the above areas are in place, together
with the necessary institutional arrangement. There are locally, regionally, and
internationally driven programs and responsible government and non-government
agencies, as well their respective areas of interventions as already mapped out by
MINIRENA. These form a basis on which further efforts for adaptation strategies can
capitalize. Therefore, the remaining task is to ensure that existing efforts are strongly
coordinated, monitored and evaluated to ensure that what is planned is implemented.