Analisis de los ciclos del producto interno bruto agropecuario colombiano 1976-2013

Type Journal Article - Apuntes Cenes
Title Analisis de los ciclos del producto interno bruto agropecuario colombiano 1976-2013
Author(s)
Volume 36
Issue 63
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2017
Page numbers 163-209
URL http://164.132.137.216/bitstream/001/1739/1/PPS-492.pdf
Abstract
The analysis of growth accounting in agricultural sector during 1976–2013 shows
a strong contribution of labor factor and TFP, but a low contribution of capital. The
results of the cycle estimation using different methods of time series filtering indicate
the existence of three complete cycles with duration of 16 quarters (4 years). The
expansions remain for 29 quarters on average (9.6 years) and contractions 4 quarters
(1 year), which implies that cycles in agricultural sector are asymmetric given the
long duration of expansions compared to contractions. The co-movement analysis of
the agricultural GDP cycle and each of its demand components shows that aggregate
variables of agricultural activity behave procyclically. The strong covariance of GDP
with apparent consumption and of coffee exports and trade balance is one of the best
stylized facts that have characterized the economic fluctuations in the Colombian
agricultural sector during this period.

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