Type | Journal Article - Borradores de economia |
Title | El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la economia colombiana |
Author(s) | |
Volume | 906 |
Publication (Day/Month/Year) | 2015 |
URL | http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/Lectura_finanzas/pdf/be_906.pdf |
Abstract | The Colombian economy has been hit by the sharp fall of international oil prices, which was characterized for being unexpected, sudden and of considerable magnitude. According to analysts, this shock could be persistent and last for several years. On top of that, the volume of oil production in the country could also decrease due to a fall of investment in the sector in the context of lower oil prices. This document aims to provide a descriptive analysis of the recent oil shock, its determinants, and their implications for the Colombian economy. To date, falling oil prices have deteriorated the country's terms of trade and thus, its national income. Other key variables such as the current account, the exchange rate, the public finance, market’s confidence and the country risk premium have also been affected. As a result, a significant economic slowdown is taking place. The economic policy response has been coherent with a sound institutional framework previously established, which has encouraged an orderly adjustment to the new external circumstances. Among the key elements of such framework it is worth mentioning an inflation-targeting scheme with flexible exchange rate, a fiscal rule for the central Government, and a macro-prudential policy aiming at preserving financial stability |
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