Global poverty is becoming increasingly concentrated in
Sub-Saharan Africa and among households engaged in
subsistence agriculture in environments characterized by
uncertainty. Understanding how to achieve sustainable
increases in household incomes in this context is key to
ending extreme poverty. Uganda offers important lessons
in this regard. Uganda experienced conflict, drought, and
price volatility in the decade from 2003 to 2013, while at
the same time experiencing the second fastest percentage
point reduction in extreme poverty per year in Sub-Saharan
Africa. This study analyzes a nationally representative panel
of 2,356 households visited four times between 2006 to
2012, in combination with data on conflict events, weather,
and prices. The study describes the type of income growth
households experienced and assesses the importance of
these external events in determining progress. The study
finds substantial growth in agricultural incomes, particularly
among poorer households. Many of the gains in
agricultural income growth came about because of good
weather, peace, and prices, and not technological change
or profound changes in agricultural production. Therefore,
although overall progress during this period was
good, there were years in which average income growth
was negative. This was particularly the case in the poorer
and more vulnerable Northern and Eastern regions,
and thus their overall income growth was also slower.