This paper studies how changes in climatic variables such as
temperature and rainfall impact migration through agriculture.
We use district level data (64 districts) for 3 inter-census periods
(1974-1980, 1981-1990 and 1991-2000) to analyse historical
migration related outcomes. We find that fluctuations in temperature
and rainfall contributed to a decline in agricultural productivity as
measured by revenues from agriculture. Fixed Effect and Instrumental
Variable estimations show that about one standard deviation
decrease in real per capita agricultural revenue increases the net
out-migration rate by 1.4 to 2.4 percent, controlling for unobserved
effects for districts and years. Using our estimates and available
forecasts in the literature, we predict that the net out-migration
rate will be about 22 percent higher in 2030 than in 1990,
assuming the variability in temperature stays stable and there
are no behavioural responses from the farmers.