Moldova has traditionally enjoyed a strong agricultural sector, especially in high-value
agriculture (HVA) products such as fruits and vegetables. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union,
however, Moldova has experienced a decline in its agricultural sector, accompanied by a decline
in its standard of living. This economic situation has raised new challenges related to the
production, processing, and transportation of HVA products, as well as access to export markets.
Despite recent improvements in its overall economy, Moldova remains one of the poorest
countries in Europe (United Nations Development Programme 2013).
Moldova’s location, topography, and fertile soil put the country in an excellent position to
expand the production and sales of HVA products, as a means both to redress poverty and make
Moldova more competitive in the global marketplace. But the country’s ability to grow its
agricultural sector also depends on stimulating investment, learning about modern agricultural
techniques, raising the quality of its exports, and improving key aspects of its infrastructure, such
as irrigation and transportation.
To address some of these challenges, the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC),
through its 2010–2015 compact with Moldova, is sponsoring two projects: the Transition to
High-Value Agriculture (THVA) project and the Road Rehabilitation project. The THVA project
comprises several activities intended to increase rural incomes and catalyze future investments in
HVA; this report describes the design that we plan to use to evaluate the effectiveness of the
THVA project.
Based on an initial list of research questions, Mathematica Policy Research originally
designed evaluations for some of the specific THVA project activities (Borkum et al. 2012;
Fortson et al. 2012; Fortson and Fortson 2011). However, since those designs were developed,
MCC and the Millennium Challenge Account-Moldova (MCA-Moldova) have developed a
revised list of research questions. The updated research questions are closely aligned with the
program logic and reflect a more holistic view of the THVA project. In addition to covering a
broader set of outcomes, there is a greater focus on understanding the reasons why expected
outcomes were or were not realized, how the different activities interacted, and whether
outcomes are sustainable. Therefore, although some of the originally planned evaluation
activities will continue, they will be embedded within the broader evaluation described in this
report.
The THVA evaluation will rely on two complementary evaluation components. The first is
an impact evaluation, which focuses on evaluating the effectiveness of the project in the areas of
Moldova where key activities are concentrated (Chapter II provides more detail about the THVA
activities). The impact evaluation will compare the changes in outcomes over time in areas in
which these activities are being implemented with similar areas in which they are not being
implemented. It will draw primarily on longitudinal quantitative data collected from farm
operators in 2013–2014 (before the completion of the compact activities), as well as in 2018–
2019 and 2020–2021 (several years after the end of the compact). The second component is a
performance evaluation, which will draw primarily on qualitative data collected in 2013, 2014,
and 2015, as well as new data to be collected between now and 2022. In addition to these
qualitative data collected from a variety of stakeholders (for example, farm operators, water userassociations [WUAs], regional training service providers, local and national government
officials, and value chain buyers), the performance evaluation will also draw on quantitative data
from recipients of loans provided by the project, various sources of administrative data, and a
document review. The performance evaluation will involve triangulating information from the
various sources to gain a complete understanding of project implementation, successes, and
challenges. The two components of the THVA evaluation are intended to complement each other
and, in combination, provide a holistic assessment of the THVA project to address the revised
research questions.
In the chapters that follow, we provide context for the evaluation and describe the planned
evaluation design in further detail. In Chapter II, we describe the program logic and activities of
the THVA project, and in Chapter III we summarize what is known from the literature about the
effects of similar interventions. In Chapter IV, we outline the research questions that the
evaluation seeks to answer and describe the evaluation design and data sources that will enable
us to answer these questions. We conclude in Chapter V.