Bangladesh is trying to achieve self-sufficiency in domestic rice production but
climate change effects on agricultural production makes it challenging to attain the goal. The
country is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change since it is the major cause to rise
in sea level, more warm summer, and happening food and cyclone in the country.
This study develops an Aggregate Farm Household Model to analyze the impact of
potential land loss and yield reduction from climate change on production, consumption,
prices, welfare, and the ability of government to achieve self-sufficiency in rice production.
The model is calibrated to the Bangladesh rice market in three alternate scenarios using
Household Income and Expenditure Survey, 2010 data. The results show that climate change
leads to decline in productivity and increase in price of rice in the domestic markets. The
reduction in rice productivity decreases rice production while increases production of other
non-rice crops. Simulation with a 25% reduction in arable land and 15% reduction in
productivity also found that rice land and non-rice agricultural land are also decreasing day by
day. However, the decline in rice production leads to greater imports making food security
harder to achieveю