Can declining employment opportunities for women reverse the fertility transition? This paper
presents new evidence that the demographic transition has not just stalled, but in fact reversed
in Egypt. After falling for decades, fertility rates are increasing. The drivers of rising fertility
rates are examined, with a particular focus on the role of declining public sector employment
opportunities for women. By using unique data with detailed fertility and employment
histories, the effects of public sector employment opportunities on women’s fertility are
estimated. Estimates are calculated by examining the effect of public sector employment on
the spacing and occurrence of births using discrete-time hazard models, the results of which
are then used to simulate total fertility rates. The potential endogeneity of employment is
addressed by incorporating woman-specific fixed effects, incorporating local employment
opportunities rather than women’s own employment, and using local employment
opportunities as an instrument. Results indicate that the decrease in public sector employment,
which is particularly appealing to women, has contributed to the rise in fertility.