Fertility preferences are an essential component of family planning program
evaluation; however, doubts about their validity in sub-Saharan Africa exist
and little methodological assessment has been carried out. This study investigates
prospective fertility intentions in terms of their temporal stability,
intensity, degree of spousal agreement, and association with future childbearing
in northern Malawi. A total of 5,222 married women participated in the
three-round study. The odds of having a child or becoming pregnant within
36 months were 4.2 times higher when both wife and husband wanted a child
within three years and 2 times higher when both wanted to wait at least three
years, compared with the odds when both wanted to cease childbearing. The
influence of husbands’ and wives’ preferences on subsequent fertility was equal.
Compared with the intention to stop, the intention to postpone childbearing
was less stable, recorded less spousal agreement, and was much less strongly
predictive of fertility.