This article examines past and future evolutions of the age structure of
the population in Cameroon by showing its implications for economic and
social development. The past evolution is traced on the basis of census data
(1976 and 1987) of the Demographic and Health Survey of 1998. The future
evolution is simulated on a time span of 35 years, taking as base the population
structure and demographic indicators of 1998. The projections are made
according to two scenarios: in the absence of, and taking into account, the
HIV/AIDS pandemic, which is spreading with unprecedented rapidity. The
past evolution of the age structure is characterized, according to the results,
by a demographic malus generated by an increased economic dependency of
the non-working population on the working population, with the corollary
growth of social investment needs to the disadvantage of wealth-creating
economic investments. Despite acknowledged efforts, the economic and
social response of the state was not equal to the needs inherent in the change
in age structure. In 1998, nearly one child out of three between 6 and 14 years
was not provided with education, nearly one person out of three was unemployed,
and 64% of the children from 12 to 23 months were not completely
vaccinated. The future would have been more optimistically envisioned,
because of the assumed emergence of a modest demographic bonus characterized
by a gradual diminution of the proportion of the young population to
the advantage of a steady increase in the working population and a continuous decrease in terms of economic dependence. But this modest demographic
bonus would have been inhibited, counterbalanced or jeopardized by
HIV/AIDS and a pronatalist response to this pandemic, the control of which
is difficult to envision in the projection period 1998-2033. In this epidemiological
context, it will be difficult to reach the Millennium Development
Goals.