A significant portion of the total electricity is consumed in the residential sector
of Nepal, mainly for lighting purpose. In this study, a model has been developed
using the concept of system dynamics to analyze the dynamics of the changes in
the urban residential lighting electricity demand up to the year 2030. A system
dynamics modeling tool, Venism, has been used for this purpose. This study is
useful for the utilities of companies for the power capacity expansion planning.
Altogether three different scenarios have been developed. They are Reference
Scenario (Ref), LED Lamp (LL) Scenario and Incandescent Lamp Remove (ILR)
Scenario. The study has shown that lighting electricity consumption has already
been in the decreasing trend due to the increasing use of Clear Fluorescent
Lamp (CFL) and will be the minimum somewhere in the year between 2021 and
2022. Only a small portion of the total electricity will be consumed for lighting
the household in the urban residential sector of Nepal in the coming decade.
Therefore, government should focus the urban energy efficiency program for
other uses of electricity such as cooking, water heating and water pumping etc.
so that a significant amount of electricity can be saved in the urban households
of Nepal. This study has also shown that there is no difference between the use
of CFL and LED lamps from the energy saving point of view. Therefore, like the
case of incandescent lamp and CFL, there is no need to encourage the people to
buy LED lamp instead of CFL.