This dissertation addresses connections among climate variability and change,
land use and land cover, and population at a rural case study site in the Chitwan
Valley in south-central Nepal experiencing rapid population growth and change.
Subsistence farmers drawn to the area since the beginning of settlement in the 1960’s
are the primary residents, many of whom in-migrated to Chitwan for the increased
agricultural opportunities available in the valley compared to more rural areas of
Nepal. However, the dependence of the population on rainfed and seasonally irrigated
agriculture leads to a vulnerability to environmental change. This study begins with
an analysis of climate trends in the area, finding increasing interannual precipitation
variability, increasing minimum temperatures, and reduced dry season streamflow, all
likely to have adverse effects on agricultural yields in the region. Using satellite and
social survey data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study, a regression model reveals
links between agricultural productivity and short-distance temporary migration in the
valley. Finally, to integrate findings from multilevel studies of social and
environmental change in the region, an agent-based model is developed, and used to
examine the effect of reciprocal connections (feedbacks) between demographic
change and land use. The model reveals that feedbacks between environmental
change and individual-level demographic decisions can lead to significant differences
in rates of population growth and land-use change. The study reveals the strong
couplings between environmental change, individual-level decisions, and livelihoods
in Chitwan, and suggests that managers must take a holistic, landscape-level view
when setting conservation policy.