Orphans and “grandorphans” in Sub-Saharan Africa: The consequences of dependent mortality

Type Journal Article - SAFAIDS
Title Orphans and “grandorphans” in Sub-Saharan Africa: The consequences of dependent mortality
Author(s)
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2003
URL http://catalogue.safaids.net/sites/default/files/publications/orphans.pdf
Abstract
Because AIDS is a sexually-transmitted disease (STD), most prevalent in the prime childbearing years, and because the epidemic has become generalized throughout Sub-Saharan Africa, it is generally recognized that many orphans will be generated by the AIDS epidemic. The outcome of children orphaned by AIDS need not be negative as research on fostering by extended family has shown. However, such positive outcomes for children orphaned by AIDS are largely predicated on the existence of extended family, and under a generalized epidemic, this very family structure is likely to be strained. Because HIV can be transmitted sexually, the infection of one parent is likely to be followed by the subsequent infection of the second parent, producing mortality correlations within households. In this paper, we present a stylized demographic model which incorporates parental AIDS mortality correlations. This model allows us to explore the e?ects of correlated mortality on the structure of
the orphaned pool of children. As would be expected, within-household correlations increase the fraction of double orphans, however, they also induce structural changes on households across generations that have profound implications on the care of subsequent generations of children at risk for orphaning. Children born into new households formed by double-orphans lack grandparents, making them vulnerable to abandonment should their parents contract HIV.

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