Applying a system dynamics modelling approach to explore policy options for improving neonatal health in Uganda

Type Journal Article - Health research policy and systems
Title Applying a system dynamics modelling approach to explore policy options for improving neonatal health in Uganda
Author(s)
Volume 14
Issue 1
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2016
URL https://health-policy-systems.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12961-016-0101-8
Abstract
Background
The most recent reports on global trends in neonatal mortality continue to show alarmingly slow progress on improvements in neonatal mortality rates, with sub-Saharan Africa still lagging behind. This emphasised the urgent need to innovatively employ alternative solutions that take into account the intricate complexities of neonatal health and the health systems in which the various strategies operate.

Methods
In our first paper, we empirically explored the causes of the stagnating neonatal mortality in Uganda using a dynamic synthesis methodology (DSM) approach. In this paper, we completed the last three stages of DSM, which involved the development of a quantitative (simulation) model, using STELLA modelling software. We used statistical data to populate the model. Through brainstorming sessions with stakeholders, iterations to test and validate the model were undertaken. The different strategies and policy interventions that could possibly lower neonatal mortality rates were tested using what-if analysis. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the strategies that could have a great impact on neonatal mortality.

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