With its population still likely to double and its water resources being severely restricted, Egypt
faces formidable population- and environment-related challenges. The government has an
explicit population policy aimed at bringing the fertility rate down to replacement level by
2017. However, it is doubtful whether reaching this goal is feasible, as the fertility decline seems to have
stalled during the 1990s and the total fertility rate currently hovers around 3.5.
With its options for agricultural development severely limited, the future livelihood of this rapidly
growing population can only be secured through rapid development in the industrial and service sectors.
For both sectors, human capital development is a necessary prerequisite for success. Of course, such
development needs to be complemented by the right investment and trade policies. But without a
sufficiently well-educated population, Egypt will not be able to compete in the global service and
industry markets. The figure below presents the age pyramid of Egypt’s population in the 1996 census
(left-most pyramid) showing that a large proportion of the adult population is still without any formal
education, particularly females (right-hand side of pyramid). The two other pyramids show two different
scenarios for 2026, one assuming all rates remain constant (right-most pyramid) and the other following
Egypt’s national goals for fertility combined with the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for education
(central pyramid). A comparison of the two pyramids for 2026 illustrates the momentum of human
capital formation and the difference that ambitious policies could make for younger people.