What constitutes the left's political base in Macedonia? Testing SDSM's voter support across municipalities in local elections of 2005, 2009 and 2013

Type Journal Article - New Balkan Politics
Title What constitutes the left's political base in Macedonia? Testing SDSM's voter support across municipalities in local elections of 2005, 2009 and 2013
Author(s)
Volume 15
Publication (Day/Month/Year) 2014
URL https://search.proquest.com/openview/8c217f6075730b58e43df993684013a8/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=404​25
Abstract
This paper is a first attempt to answer the question what are the predictors for party support for the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) on local level. While there are general theoretical guidelines and similar research from other countries, this issue has not been tackled in Macedonia. Using multiple regression analysis, I test the influence of five sets of factors (geography, demography, socioeconomic conditions, cultural factors and electoral opportunities) on the vote share of SDSM in three local electoral cycles (2005, 2009 and 2013). The results show that SDSM's support is positively related to municipalities with a greater number of households, a higher average age of citizens, a higher number of ethnic Macedonians and a higher number of economically active citizens; where electoral opportunities are higher. Education levels show mixed results, while a higher proportion of religious citizens shows a negative relationship with support for SDSM. Whether municipalities are urban or rural, rich or poor, close to the capital or in the capital itself, have high levels of social welfare spending and greater representation of women, are all factors that are not related to support for SDSM.

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