This study evaluates Botswana’s prospects for democratic consolidation by
investigating whether the country’s unique post-colonial experience of steady economic
growth and multiparty democracy has promoted the growth of emancipative, ‘self-expression
values.’ Firstly, the study measures the levels of emancipative, ‘self-expression’ values in the
country, which are associated with mature democracies, and tests four predictive models
linking development to individual-level cultural change: modernisation theory, the Human
Development Sequence, a cognitive hypothesis, and a political learning approach. Secondly,
it replicates the analysis for the full regional dataset in order to investigate the extent to which
Africans’ values are shaped by collective experience.
In contrast to expectations based on aggregate socioeconomic indicators, the results
indicate that Botswana is at a middling point on the survival/self-expression value spectrum
and that citizens are not, on average, significantly more self-expressive than their regional
counterparts. Further analysis indicates that cultural variation within the country was driven
by differences in levels of both existential security and cognitive autonomy. Regional growth
of self-expression values, conversely, was primarily shaped by individual cognitive forces,
rather than generational or collective experiences.
Overall, the study’s results indicate that the pace and state-driven nature of
Botswana’s post-colonial development has produced similar challenges to those faced by
other Sub-Saharan African countries. Botswana’s prospects for future democratic
consolidation are therefore contingent not only on the continued growth of an educated,
professional middle class, but also on the development of a vibrant private sector to decrease
ordinary citizens’ reliance on the state.